March 01, 2007

Balance As Bias?

The Gorebot is a little miffed that not enough people are listening to him (and he's super serial!) about global warming. You see, it's the media bias that is preventing more worldwide acceptance of this non-phenomenon.

"I believe that is one of the principal reasons why political leaders around the world have not yet taken action," Gore said. "There are many reasons, but one of the principal reasons in my view is more than half of the mainstream media have rejected the scientific consensus implicitly — and I say 'rejected,' perhaps it's the wrong word. They have failed to report that it is the consensus and instead have chosen … balance as bias.
Hookay. Now let that last bit sink in a bit.

So, to Gore, the kind of bias that's slanted in favor of one side of an argument and ignores the other side is just fine. But when both sides are being heard - a "balance" of coverage - a portion of the media is being irresponsible? WTF?

In referring to the "bad" half of the mainstream media the former VP of course means the evil Right-Wing consortium of FoxNews, Drudge & Limbaugh who aren't buying into the media meme that equates the subjective term "scientific consensus" with scientific fact (not to mention many high-profile Conservative bloggers).

The American Heritage Dictionary defines "consensus" as follows:
con-sen-sus n. 1. Collective opinion 2. General agreement or accord.

Scientific facts don't need consensus because they've been proven. And if one group of scientists has one opinion, by definition another group of scientists will have an opposing opinion. And those scientists skeptical of man-made global warming are out there. You just don't hear about them from the "good" half of the mainstream media. Because their bias in favor of it to the exclusion of any dissent is "good" bias.

So for global warming alarmists, consensus is good enough for them. Kind of ironic when you consider that, for most of them, any other kind of consensus that they disagree with (like a belief in the existence of God, for example) is considered naive and downright nutty.

UPDATE:
Oops! I guess I really goofed on this one. Apparently, the surface tempuratures on Mars are rising too. Therefore any fool can see that it must be caused by human activity.

Wait a minute. There isn't any life on Mars. Scratch that.

Maybe it's that Mars Rover thingy. Yeah, that's the ticket...

Posted by Gary at March 1, 2007 09:27 AM | TrackBack
Comments

So, to Gore, the kind of bias that's slanted in favor of one side of an argument and ignores the other side is just fine. But when both sides are being heard - a "balance" of coverage - a portion of the media is being irresponsible? WTF?

No, he is saying it is irresponsible for the media to give equal weight to two sides of an argument when all the facts support one side. It is like saying there is a controversy about why the sky is blue. 2500 scientists say it is because different wavelengths of light behave differently in the atmosphere, and 3 guys in a barber shop say it is because there are 1,000,000 smurfs suspended in the upper atmosphere. Who knows which is correct?

Bias of balance.

50% of MSM includes articles in the Washington Post, NYT, LA Times, etc. etc. It is a widespread phenomenon and uniformly incorrect.

Posted by: LB Buddy at March 1, 2007 03:04 PM

So, to Gore, the kind of bias that's slanted in favor of one side of an argument and ignores the other side is just fine. But when both sides are being heard - a "balance" of coverage - a portion of the media is being irresponsible? WTF?

No, he is saying it is irresponsible for the media to give equal weight to two sides of an argument when all the facts support one side. It is like saying there is a controversy about why the sky is blue. 2500 scientists say it is because different wavelengths of light behave differently in the atmosphere, and 3 guys in a barber shop say it is because there are 1,000,000 smurfs suspended in the upper atmosphere. Who knows which is correct? One can make an educated guess if it is presented appropriately. Typically it is not.

Bias of balance.

50% of MSM includes articles in the Washington Post, NYT, LA Times, etc. etc. It is a widespread phenomenon and uniformly incorrect.

Posted by: LB Buddy at March 1, 2007 03:05 PM

Who knows which is correct? One can make an educated guess if it is presented appropriately.

The correct one is the one that's been scientifically proven. Making an "educated guess" about the reason the sky is blue or the reason surface tempuratures have risen less than a degree over the last thirty years doesn't make it valid.

Even a fantasy can be presented appropriately enough to make some people accept it without question.

Posted by: Gary at March 1, 2007 03:55 PM

The scientific consensus you mention is that it has been proven. That is why consensus is appropriate in this context. Sure you can find people that do not agree with the consensus opinion, but like people that still believe the Earth is flat or that dinosaurs and humans roamed the earth together, it is not rooted in scientific research but in a desire to belive something else.

Posted by: LB Buddy at March 1, 2007 06:33 PM

Please be so kind as to direct me to the particular study that proved it.

Posted by: Gary at March 1, 2007 08:44 PM

And while we're on the subject. It was Galileo who proved the law of gravity. Newtown has his third law of motion and Einstein had that E=MC2 relativity law.

Who gets the credit for the Law of Global Warming?

Posted by: Gary at March 1, 2007 08:47 PM

Was it the same guy who proved the Law of Global Cooling that predicted the upcoming new Ice Age back in 1975?

Posted by: Gary at March 1, 2007 08:48 PM

The global cooling myth was something that only occurred in non-scientific magazines and newspapers. They are gross distortions of the scientific literature. The spam filter is blocking my link, but here is the actual quote that was abused by ignorant reporters:

Future climate. Having presented evidence that major changes in past climate were associated with variations in the geometry of the earth's orbit, we should be able to predict the trend of future climate. Such forecasts must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted. One approach to forecasting the natural long-term climate trend is to estimate the time constants of response necessary to explain the observed phase relationships between orbital variation and climatic change, and then to use those time constants in the exponential-response model. When such a model is applied to Vernekar's (39) astronomical projections, the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate.

Note the qualifiers in bold.
The remaining arguments you give are gross distortions of the process of science. For example it was Newton that first proposed that energy and matter were interconvertable. It was Poincare that first published E=mc2 and Einstein built upon that publication 5 years later and extended its ramifications. None of the examples you provide were "proved" by those individuals, they were proposed by those individuals and proof followed much later. This is always the way science works. The "genius" models that people are so fond of discussing are not accurate depictions of the way science progresses.
So no, there isn't a single paper that "proves" global warming, but there is more than 30 years of climate research with over 9000 papers in the scientific literature pointing towards anthropormorfic warming and none (literally none) in the scientific literature disproving it. People believe much sillier things on much much thinner evidence.

Posted by: LB Buddy at March 2, 2007 11:32 AM

"9000 papers in the scientific literature pointing towards anthropormorfic warming"

"pointing towards"? No empirical evidence, then? The burden isn't upon those who would disprove it, it's on those who need to prove it.

I can point you to an article outlining a theory about how Gnomes can generate profit by stealing underpants. A silly theory at face value, yes. But without empirical scientific evidence it's just as valid as the theory of anthropormorfic warming.

The problem with theories - as opposed to scientific laws - is that they're all based on models. And, like algebraic equations (or the theory on global cooling that you debunk above), you can start with a desired result and back into the assumptions. If the assumptions are false (or manipulated properly) you get your theory.

But a theory isn't proven unless you use all three steps of the scientific method:
1) Make an observation
2) Create a hypothesis, and
3) Test the hypothesis.

Until you can present a study with the results of an empirical test of the hypothesis which can also eliminates plausible alternatives, the theory is not proven and therefore inconclusive.

In that context, Gore's comment about "balance as bias" is absurd.

Posted by: Gary at March 2, 2007 12:29 PM

And since we're talking about thirty years, the Global Warming alarmists will have to address a simple fact: that for at least hundreds of years (most of which were free of man-made anthropogenic greenhouse gases), average surface temperatures have risen and fallen in a cyclical manner.

To not take into consideration factors that have caused these fluctuations beyond the last thirty years is extremely shortsighted.

But then, if you take this into consideration it makes it harder to get funding for your research.

Posted by: Gary at March 2, 2007 01:52 PM

"pointing towards"? No empirical evidence, then?

Of course I did not say that. Each paper consists of nothing but empirical evidence, that is why it is a scientific paper. Science Magazine is not the OP-ED page, you don't get to propose unsupported theories or opinions. Everything starts with emperical evidence. The vast majority of the published papers do all three of the steps you list. However it is such a large issue that no one paper could possibly prove all aspects in one shot. Couldn't do it with the relatively simple connection between smoking and cancer so why would you expect to be able to do it with global warming? That is why the community relies on a body of work, and that is why chipping at one or two papers with flaws in them in no way discredits the body of work. But this is exactly the SOP for all warming deniers, most of whom have not read a single primary scientific article.
If 9000 to 0 is not compelling enough evidence, then the bar you have set is absurdly high for proof.

In addition, suggesting that researchers who study climate for a living did not take into account simple confounding issues like natural fluctuations of temperature is absurd. CO2 effects are calcualted after all other factors are controlled for.

Posted by: LB Buddy at March 2, 2007 05:18 PM

I notice that you keep insisting that there's all this evidence out there yet with 9000 papers to choose from you don't seem to be able to find one - with documented evidence - in electronic form and link it.

I'm still waiting.

And for the record it's not 9000 to 0, it's at least 9000 to 1 (example: http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate/a-new-theory-of-climate-change

Of course, there are others but the media don't report on them because they don't support this huge scam.

Which is why we need balance because other causes have not been ruled out.

9000 scientists is a relatively big number, I suppose. But how many climatologists are there in the world? 10,000? 100,000? A million? If you take the 9000 agenda-driven funding-seeking scientists in question and express that number as a percentage of all available scientists how do I know how much that represents? Did they take a poll of all the scientists who are qualified to have an opinion on the subject?

Feel free to come back when you have something substantive to offer besides opinion and hearsay.

Posted by: Gary at March 2, 2007 06:50 PM

This is probably a dead thread at this point, but here goes anyway.

1) Unless I'm missing something, the press release you linked to is irrelevant. It is talking about the long term variations in climate and not the recent rapid increases in heat. It is essentially neutral in regards to greenhouse gas effects.

2)Here is a very small sample of the primary research available:

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Let me know if you would like more.

A lay summary written by climate experts using all those references and the 8,900 others can be found here:

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm

The 4th assessment is not yet available online, but it uses even stronger language as 6 more years of research supports their conclusions. None of this is opinion or hearsay. This is the science. It is ridiculous to call this a scam. It is madness to ignore it.

Posted by: LB Budy at March 3, 2007 11:13 PM