It is going to be ugly and the time to stop it is sooner rather than later. Just like a bad marriage, it only gets worse the longer you put off the inevitable.

The threat coming from a belligerent country will not stop just because it's neighbors say "Please". Anyone remember Chamberlin in the days before WWII and "Peace for our time" with Herr Hitler?

This one is going to result in a big orange ball before it's all over. Unless a squad of snipers (not snippers) is able to take out a few key figures.

Dan Patterson
The Doggy Llama

I think VDH is largely correct.

But I think hauling Iran into the Security Council and forcing either sanctions or a Russian or Chinese veto will go a long way toward putting world opinion on our side when we do have to act. Which I think we will.

My concern with Israel doing the job is that they may not be able to stage the prolonged effort (which VDH outlines) necessary to guarantee success -- unless their plan is a preemptive, nuclear, decapitory strike on the regime's leaders in Tehran itself. That, though grim to contemplate, would be their most certain option for success. Were I running the IDF, it would certainly be high up on the list of my thoughts.

We can do the sustained, "take out the sites" conventional thing, using a few carriers. If I were Rumsfeld, I'd be leaning that way in order to pre-empt the IDF.

I think the Russians and Chinese will come in line. I worry less about the Chinese than the Russians, as the Chinese oil, right now, comes in by ship. We can effectively deny them oil if they back Tehran. They back the mullahs and we close the Gulf and take out the mullahs. A hell of a stick to use, but I'd certainly mention it to the Chinese in passing, just in case they've overlooked the fact. Could it provoke WW III? Cutting off oil to an Asian superpower cerftainly contributed to WW II. I'd have to say we could well be seeing the stars align for a World War. Ther good news is it's about ten years earlier than China would've liked.

The Russians, on the other hand, we simply need to buy. That's certainly doable.

I know I'd be having some talks with Grand Ayatollah Sistani right now, making sure he knows that while our Navy is taking out Tehran, our Army could be sitting in Najaf in a matter of hours if he doesn't play ball and keep Shi'a Iraq quiet. Again, probably not a pleasant conversation, but one I'm sure Condi is thinking of.

There is a silver lining in this, and here it is. Ahmadinejad is crazy. "Yeah -- that's the good news?" you're saying. Actually it is. His madness may force the mullahs to remove him. And failing that, it gives us a gold plated excuse to remove him. I think no one will be able to criticize us or Israel (much) if we do remove him.

Makes you wish 007 were on the payroll for real. Avoiding situations like this is pretty much his job description.

If this all goes bad, we can thank 2 men. One is Jimmy Carter, for precipitating the fall of the Shah. The other is Frank Church, who got us out of the Humint business.

Me, I'm tracking the carriers. The USS Reagan will be on station in about 2 weeks. I'd be expecting additional stuff to be leaving San Diego, Bremerton, and Norfolk in short order -- the next 2 weeks or so.

No happy scenarios are there.

Book of Revelation - pointing towards a terrible ending. Picking up from 16:8
Then the fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, causing it to scorch everyone with its fire. 9 Everyone was burned by this blast of heat, and they cursed the name of God, who sent all of these plagues. They did not repent and give him glory.
10 Then the fifth angel poured out his bowl on the throne of the beast, and his kingdom was plunged into darkness. And his subjects ground their teeth in anguish, 11 and they cursed the God of heaven for their pains and sores. But they refused to repent of all their evil deeds.
12 Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great Euphrates River, and it dried up so that the kings from the east could march their armies westward without hindrance. 13 And I saw three evil spirits that looked like frogs leap from the mouth of the dragon, the beast, and the false prophet. 14 These miracle-working demons caused all the rulers of the world to gather for battle against the Lord on that great judgment day of God Almighty.

15 "Take note: I will come as unexpectedly as a thief! Blessed are all who are watching for me, who keep their robes ready so they will not need to walk naked and ashamed."

16 And they gathered all the rulers and their armies to a place called Armageddon in Hebrew.
17 Then the seventh angel poured out his bowl into the air. And a mighty shout came from the throne of the Temple in heaven, saying, "It is finished!" 18 Then the thunder crashed and rolled, and lightning flashed. And there was an earthquake greater than ever before in human history. 19 The great city of Babylon split into three pieces, and cities around the world fell into heaps of rubble. And so God remembered all of Babylon's sins, and he made her drink the cup that was filled with the wine of his fierce wrath. 20 And every island disappeared, and all the mountains were leveled. 21 There was a terrible hailstorm, and hailstones weighing seventy-five pounds* fell from the sky onto the people below. They cursed God because of the hailstorm, which was a very terrible plague.