October 20, 2008

Fearless Prognostication Time


Independents and Undecideds are going to lose their nerve about betting on Obama at the last minute and hand the election to McCain.

Not an endorsement, just a hunch.


Posted by Robert at October 20, 2008 12:48 PM | TrackBack

I want some of what you're smoking

Posted by: quasimodo at October 20, 2008 12:54 PM

Why are so many people still claiming to be undecided at this late date? Methinks they just don't want to tell the pollsters they're for McCain. Now, whether that is out of 1) embarrassment, 2) fear of being called a racist, or 3) fear that the pollsters are in fact Stasi-esque and don't want to wind up at Gitmo, well that is something I haven't figured out yet.

Posted by: rbj at October 20, 2008 01:06 PM

Gosh I hope you're right. Maybe I'd be able to start sleeping at night if I could convince myself to believe it.

Posted by: beth at October 20, 2008 01:56 PM

I will vote to make it so. However, you cannot underestimate the turnout from the left side of the bell curve. Stupid is.

Posted by: twolaneflash at October 20, 2008 05:37 PM

Wishful thinking on your part, I'm afraid.

W. is less popular than Ford was. Given how unpopular Republicans were in 1976, that is a bit hard to fathom.

But I don't think many Republicans will get elected to high office this year, or any year until they can convince the voters that they once again believe in something besides the 1950s.

The Republicans believe in Federalism except when the states take positions they don't like. When did Marriage (gay or straight) become an issue to be controlled at the national level? Oh yeah, when some states made decisions the conservatives didn't like.

The Republicans spend money at a rate that would have made Tip O'Neil blush. Fiscal conservatives? They aren't Republican anymore.

So the choice is vote for the party that is against science and for teaching religion in science classes, or vote for the socialist party. And you wonder why so many people are undecided. If there was a "none of the above" on the ticket, it would win 60-to-20-to-20.

(And before you beat up on me... Yes, I know evolution is "only a theory." All of science is made up of only theories. Science gave up on the idea of absolute truth in the 1800s or early 1900s. Theories must explain all of the observed data, and should make predictions about future observations. Evolution does that. Or why do we need a new flu vaccine every year? Where did bird flu come from, and why are doctors worried it will become more contagious? Did the intelligent designer redesign the flu every year?

If you are interested in "absolute truth" take a philosophy or theology class.)

Posted by: Zendo Deb at October 20, 2008 11:24 PM

Well whoever wins, the next 4 years are still going to be a pessimists wet dream.

Posted by: stillers at October 21, 2008 04:50 AM

I think most folks are deathly afraid of what they perceive to be Obama's glass jaw and what's worse his apparent Veep-to-be just confirmed the fear.

That said, I believe the O will win by margins much more narrow than expected and not really so much because of his puppet-masters' purchase of the airwaves but because of the impobable achievement of an amalgamated critical mass of dolts and young folks has been achieved.

Fortunately, I am old and can see past the cycle. We'll have four years of an Obamanation and then another election cycle.

Posted by: Michael at October 21, 2008 08:39 AM

I live in SW Michigan and I tell you that the conversation around the water cooler and local shops is all about Joe the plumber McCain and Palin and folks are really talking about creeping socialism and tax increases that we can no longer tolerate. I don't know what the MSM is smoking but they are absolutely delusional if they think this is an Obama slam dunk, more like a dunking I think. I am not very warm and fuzzy with McCain but I tell you the alternative is bloody frightening, or is it just me whistling past the graveyard?

Posted by: Terrapod at October 21, 2008 06:38 PM

Well the consensus in our household is that the election will be decided by a slim hair. My husband is quite optimistic that McCain will take it; I am more pessimistic. However, I am quite optimistic about Congress. I don't think Obama's got the coattails to pull off a landslide in the congressional races, and I think the GOP might pick up some seats. (Of course, this is from Boehner country, so perhaps I don't have enough perspective. Mitch McConnell certainly seems to be in a tight one.)

Posted by: AKL at October 22, 2008 09:24 PM