February 04, 2008

Heading Into Thunderdome Tuesday

Well, I've been pretty bad with predictions but I might as well keep trying.

Polls in the "winner-take-all" states favor McCain and California - which awards delegates by congressional districts - looks to be trending Romney, who is also leading in Western states.

I'm guessing that the Huckleheads are bound and determined to still vote for their guy in sufficient numbers to damage Romney pretty badly. I wish I was wrong but I'm guessing that McCain will come out of tomorrow with at least a two to one advantage in delegates.

On Wednesday, the Romney camp will look at the remaining states and delegates up for grabs and make a call. Only if it looks promising enough will he continue. Romney doesn't strike me as the kind of candidate who would pursue a brokered convention. If the writing is on the wall, he'll pull out by the end of the week. If he makes a surprise showing and remains a lot closer in the hunt, he'll probably go a bit longer hoping for his own momentum.

I don't see it, though. So, Thunderdome Tuesday: McCain and Romney enter. McCain leaves and runs bartertown.

The Dems? This one should really be interesting. Things must be getting tight because SWMNBN is turning on the water works again. Hey, whatever works, right? My guess is that Obama will win enough to keep going and the focus after this week will be all on the protracted fight in that race.

Me? Tomorrow, I'll be pulling the lever for Giuliani Thompson Romney, despite the fact that McCain has anywhere from a 16-28 lead in the polls here in Connecticut. So, let the chips fall where they may.

Posted by Gary at February 4, 2008 02:06 PM | TrackBack

Your barbershop / streetcorner correspondent:

I was just getting my haircut in downtown Hartford, and learned that Obama is having a rally at the Hartford Civic Center today at 5:30 PM. I walked over and talked to the people in line. I should say 'the line that went over 1/2 of the way around the building 3 hours before the event begins'. Anyway, the people in front of the line had been to a Hillary event in Springfield. In a regular old auditorium. He's already on his way to filling a 16,000 seat coliseum.

Anyway, about 1/4 to 1/3 of the people in line had on Obama gear of some kind. Most with whom I spoke said they were undecided but excited to see him speak.

Gut reaction: he's peaking at just the right time. Not quite Giants/Patriots here, but he's really hit a chord. And the final fall of the axe: my barber. This barbershop has been there for 1927 years, and a lots of the pols in Hartford go there. His take: Obama's going to take down Clinton in Connecticut.

Always go with the barbers. (Especially in a year when the pollsters can't count above three without removing a mitten.)

Posted by: tdp at February 4, 2008 03:47 PM

update: Dems in CT

- Hillary's rally: New Haven, with 100 in audience (source: WVIT, a local NBC affiliate)

- Obama's rally: Hartford, with 17,000 in audience (source: Hartford Courant website)

Posted by: tdp at February 4, 2008 09:22 PM