January 30, 2008
A Two-Man Race (Such That It Is)
[Disclaimer: the following does not necessarily represent the views of the other contributors to The Llama Butchers or its proprietors, Steve and Robert, and should be taken in the context of the rantings of someone who spends too much time paying attention to politics]
McCain clearly gets the momentum this week, driven by passionate hugs and kisses from the MSM.
It's not over, but the eventual outcome is becoming clearer.
I'm not miffed or even disappointed, as this possibility seemed the most likely. What I am - as I suspect many Republicans are this morning - is irritated.
Not at McCain, but at the fact that all the various constituencies couldn't seem to coalesce around a candidate that at least best represented the Republican party. John McCain has never represented his party. Since his first day in politics, he's represented only numero uno - John McCain. The pure irony is that I am a registered Republican today because of my desire to vote for him in the CT GOP primary in 2000. But since that day, I've had a problem with the way he has not only been unable to take that defeat in stride but how he's focused so much of his energy holding a bitter grudge against the man who did win as well as the rank and file who didn't give him the victory to which he feels he was entitled. His conduct over the last eight years - as a Republican - has been pretty reprehensible in my opinion. I've been simply awestruck at how deeply he takes everything so personally. It's a character flaw that often reveals an unseemly side to his personality and - in my opinion - clouds his judgment.
Now before all you McCain supporters weigh in be aware that for every valid argument you can make as to why I should vote for McCain on Tuesday I can give you two as to why I feel I shouldn't. So save your breath (and keystrokes) because when I vote in the upcoming CT primary it won't be for McCain.
My first choice was Giuliani. He's gone now but I won't be following his example and moving into the McCain camp. I seriously entertained backing Ol' Fred but he's history, too. That leaves Mitt Romney. Romney has an outside chance which he can kick start at tonight's debate. But since Huckabee insists on hanging around that task is an uphill battle.
To the Huckleheads who go to the polls next week, I recommend that they each have a personal come-to-Jesus meeting and think long and hard about what they can accomplish. Vote for Huck, and you'll guaranty McCain. Vote for Romney and the expected outcome may no longer be inevitable.
Mitt Romney has executive experience - real executive experience - in actually running things and bringing people together to get things done. No matter what you think of him, you know he's not going spend four years in the White House getting off on pissing in everyone's punchbowl. I can't say that about Maverick.
One other thing to consider - the MSM is fawning over him now, but if/when he secures the nomination they will turn on him with the intensity of a rabid pitbull. By the time November comes around, McCain the candidate will be unrecognizable from the surging White House hopeful he is now. They will eviscerate him mercilessly because the whole time they've been riding along on that Straight Talk Express they've been writing down or recording every single frank and candid comment he's been foolish enough to make in their presence. And they will use it against him. McCain won't know what hit him because he will finally understand that all this good will he's been getting from them all these years has been an complete lie.
I'll credit the man for coming back from political death and waging a fierce campaign. He won his votes fair and square. But he won't be getting mine on Tuesday. After that, we'll have to wait and see.
UPDATE:
Just to clarify that last sentence, I'm not saying "I'm not voting for McCain in the general!" What I'm saying is once this nomination process is essentially concluded (assuming one candidate hits the magic delegate number, which is likely), I'll have a lot to think about. Certainly, I'm inclined to vote Republican anyway but my presence at the polls is not guaranteed. It has to be earned.
Also, Rasmussen has the following break-down for CT:
McCain 42%
Romney 26%
As I suspected, it really doesn't matter how I vote on Tuesday. McCain is set win CT regardless.
Posted by Gary at January 30, 2008 09:47 AM | TrackBackI've been with Romney since the beginning, and though I find McCain irritating, I always thought he'd end up as the nominee (I always thought Romney would finish second). I hope Romney ends up as VP, but if it is McCain/Thompson I'll be happy, too. McCain/Giuliani or McCain/Huckabee I'd object to, but I'd still end up voting for them. I think the rank and file in the Republican party still see McCain as a conservative, though conservative pundits do not. I'm not sure whose right.
I think McCain wins in November.
He'll probably end up governing more conservatively than he acted as senator.
If not, well, he's probably a one-termer anyway due to age. If Romney is Veep, that works out OK. If its Huckabee, then I think we're all in trouble in 2012.
Posted by: The Abbot at January 30, 2008 10:47 AMCount me among the conservatives who find Sen McCain irritating. I think he revels in his "Maverick" personna a little too much. His opposition to the tax cuts in 2001, and the "Gang of 14" involvment sets me on edge.
That stated, Sen McCain's unabashed & vocal support for the Surge and our troops, when nearly every politican was bobbing & weaving, shows he has steel in his backbone about the topic that for me, is paramount - national security. When McCain said he would pursue OBL to the gates of Hell, I believe him.
Posted by: kmr at January 30, 2008 12:17 PMMichelle Malkin has an interesting thread about the 20% percent self-identified non-Republican, Republican voters. Anyone can re-register up to 29 days prior to a vote in Florida (as opposed to NY where I live, which allows reregistration only once per election cycle, at the start of said cycle).
So was this a Republican victory for McCain? I think not as his margin of victory was only 5%. The pressure on McCain the RINO should continue.
Posted by: old school lady at January 30, 2008 12:53 PMWell. I am a McCain supporter, in the interest of full disclosure. I am also a resident of Massachusetts, and would note that Mitt didn't exactly knock himself out with regard to party building in the state. He took the party nomination from a sitting GOP governor (who indeed was less than competent and deserved to be replaced), was elected, fixed his sights on the presidency (likely his goal all along), and did next to nothing to advance the cause of his lieutenant governor when she ran to succeed him. Mitt wasn't such a bad governor. But the state party he left behind lies in shambles. The idea that he is not out for himself first and foremost is not, I think, borne out by past events.
Posted by: Mark S at January 30, 2008 02:28 PMEveryone is down on McCain the Rino - mostly over his take on immigration.
Is his position that different from George W?
McCain isn't my first choice, but then neither is Romney.
But do you want to consider 4 or 8 years of Hillary?
Hell I wouldn't have voted for George W. if there had been a better choice than either Gore or Kerry. Would you have?
Not to say I wouldn't vote Democratic. I held my noise and voted for Clinton (Bob Dole was a loser in more ways than 1).
So you could nominate the Huckster, or Ron Paul, and make "the base" happy. And lose in November. And Fred may have been a good President, but he was a lousy candidate. You can't win if you don't campaign, and Fred didn't campaign, not effectively anyway.
And Rudy G. was a bit of a fascist - yeah he fought crime, but at what cost? And you would lose the whole of the NRA/Gunowners of America vote if he was your candidate. He loves gun control - he only toned down his love of gun control for the campaign, he never backed away really. (Or do you also believe that John Kerry was a friend of the Second Amendment?)
Posted by: Zendo Deb at January 30, 2008 03:58 PMOK, Mark. But let's be honest. In Mass. the Republican party is only marginally more relevant than the Green or Libertarian parties. It was in shambles before Mitt's administration as well.
Posted by: Gary at January 30, 2008 07:02 PMAbout a year ago two of the nine hundred year old vampires who own this country and its people Rupert Murdoch and Sumner Redstone, decided Hillary Clinton was going to be the next POTUS.
Payment for the pardon of their brethren Marc Rich? Who knows. Murdoch throws a fund raiser. Redstone fires Imus. Now they're serving up McCain as the sacrificial opposition. This is looking like that horse race I saw back in '04 at Fairgrounds. Really rigged.
I too will be voting against John McCain in the CT primary - even though the polls indicate he will win here easily.
If he gets the nomination I would consider voting in the general as a vote against Hillary or Obama. But seeing as this is a fairly solid blue state that would be something of a meaningless gesture.
Posted by: Stephen Macklin at January 31, 2008 07:07 AM
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