January 22, 2008

The New State Of The Race - GOP Division

With Ol' Fred taking his leave of the process (NRO has an analysis on why he never really took off), let's look at where the remaining (major) candidates stand:

Huckabee: Word is the Huckster is out of money and he's all but abandoned Florida. Had Fred withdrawn earlier he probably would have won SC. Since he came in second, his big hope now is to "hang around" and accumulate some delegates. VP spot, anyone?

McCain: His challenge now is to win primaries that are closed to non-party members (i.e. independents). If he loses Florida, the bloom of "inevitability" may wither and his softer support may elude him on Extreme Tuesday. The MSM loves him. The conservative base of the Republican party? Not so much.

Romney: His biggest advantage is the money. He can stay in as long as he wants. Ad buys may be effective in introducing himself to voters who may not be that familiar with him. He's currently got the most delegates and looks like slow and steady is his strategy. He has an uncanny ability to win you over if you're not firmly in another camp.

Giuliani: If this comes down to a three way race (McCain-Romney-Giuliani), even a second place finish in Florida can keep him alive for Feb. 5th. He's got the name recognition down. He's probably got the toughest sell. But stranger things have happened already. And Rudy could end up defying all pundits and come away with a plurality of the available delegates.

From where I sit (and I'm still a Rudy guy) I see the best chances for the nomination - over the long haul - in this order:
1) Romney
2) McCain
3) Giuliani
4) Huckabee

We shall see.


Posted by Gary at January 22, 2008 04:18 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Thompson leaving helps Romney -- and Romney's chances are bolstered even more if Huck drops out, and they get better the longer Giuliani survives -- theory being that Rudy and McCain both sit on Romney's left, and Romney is therefore the most conservative candidate standing -- and he becomes the only conservative alternative to McCain.

I think, though, that McCain wins Florida, goes into Super Tuesday with a tailwind, and takes it all. Rudy drops out, and then McCain has to choose who he wants as Veep -- Huckabee or Romney.

To me, Huckabee is 'Nixon' to McCain's 'Eisenhower' -- a guy he basically dislikes, but is red meat to a big enough portion of the base to help turnout. But I think Romney brings that old intangible called money to the race. I think McCain chances that the evangelicals will turn out to vote against Hillary and takes Mitt, because he knows he'll need money -- particularly if Hillary picks Obama for VP.

Posted by: The Abbot at January 22, 2008 06:01 PM

With Fred gone and Huckabee fading, I think Romney positions himself as the conservative choice in the field. Wasn't it Huckabee who cut into Romney's territory in Iowa and South Carolina?

The question is whether conservative voters will buy into the whole "McCain is the strongest general election candidate" meme that the MSM is pushing or if they push back against that "conventional wisdom".

Posted by: Gary at January 23, 2008 09:22 AM