All Eyes On The Granite State

Six months ago, I said John McCain had almost no chance of winning the Republican nomination. I stand by that statement. He may win NH, barely. But a NH win is no indication of solid support among the GOP voters. In 2000, McCain beat Bush handily. But his margin of victory was due to independent voters who were allowed to vote in the primary (a policy which I, to this day, don't fully understand or agree with).

NH prides itself on its independence and likes to turn the conventional wisdom on its ear. But unaffiliated voters will be energized by the prospect of making a bigger impact in the Democrat race. I expect they'll break for Obama today in greater numbers than McCain anticipated. At the end of the day, I see McCain just edging Romney. It won't be enough to derail Romney's campaign because of his (seemingly) unlimited financial resources. And it won't be enough to make McCain the clear front-runner. In other words, tomorrow the race on the GOP side will still be muddled.

Huckabee will likely pull up the rear in third place but that's not a given. NH voters may want to make a counter-statement to Iowa. Rudy's challenge at this point is to try and finish above Ron Paul. If he doesn't, it will undermine his wait until "Rapture Tuesday" strategy severely.

So, here we go:

McCain: 32%
Romney: 30%
Huckabee: 13%
Giuliani: 13%
Paul: 8%
Thompson: 4%
Hunter: 0%

As for the Dems, I expect Obama to win by single digits (6-8%). Edwards will be third. At this point, Edwards will be hoping for a two-man race by the time SC roles around. Will She Who Must Not Be Named throw in the towel or fight on? Stay tuned...