Who Really Won Last Night

Not to sound too snarky, but the citizens of the other 49 states are now the big winners because we can forget about Iowa until 2012. Aah. Sounds good, doesn't it?

Now we have to undure the over-hyped importance New Hampshire. They really, really need to change this process.

Anyway, let's look at how far I was off:

Me:
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 27%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 12%
Paul: 9%
Giuliani: 6%
Hunter: 1%

Actual:
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 25%
Thompson: 13%
McCain: 13%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 3%
Hunter: 0%

Let's see.
1) Ol' Fred will edge his buddy McCain - check (barely)
2) Ron Paul passes Giuliani - check (more than expected)
3) The big story: Fred ain't dead (yet) - WRONG

The big story is the Huck-upset. My rationale for a Romney win was that organization beats passion. WRONG. Turnout was good for Romney but better for Huck. Why? A slew of new/first-time voters for the Huckster. And they were by and large younger and evangelical.

Let's take a look at the data. Patrick Ruffini explains:

"In the 2000 Caucuses, only 37% described themselves as “religious right.” This year, 60% described themselves as “Evangelical Christians.” That’s an imperfect comparison, but the universe of Evangelical voters almost certainly expanded this year."

One other result from last night is that Giuliani's got to be smiling. True he registered just 3% in Iowa, but he pretty much wrote off the state. Huckabee hurt Romney in Iowa. McCain is surging in NH. A muddle race by the time Florida roles around benefits his Super-Duper-Mega-Extreme Tuesday strategy.

As for the Dems, I said "Obama wins, 'You-know-who' squeaks past Edwards." Well, Obama won and Edwards squeaked past HRCR, barely. Edwards needed a win but he'll hang around hoping that she tanks. Because of the "viability" requirement, the rest of the crowd registered either at zero or single digits. Interesting when you think of it. 38% of Democrats basically told She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named "we hate you so much we're willing to throw the dice on a guy with absolutely no experience." Of course, the problem with Obama is that right now he is an empty vessel, filled with all the different expectations of a dissatisfied Democrat party. Will the voters of NH and beyond agree with Iowa? We'll have to wait and see.

Oh, and another plus - we don't have to see the pantload and the plagiarist in anymore debates.

In the meantime, the candidates will spend the next five days listening to local yokels say things like, "Well, then guess your way to Redbud."**

** spot the quote

And, as always, Jim Geraghty has the best (and most amusing take) on each candidate's finish. My personal favorite - advice to Obama: "Just brace yourself, because Hillary is going to go negative on you, in a way that the Clinton machine has never gone negative before. Wear two cups."

Heh.