January 03, 2008

First Comes Iowa

Much to the chagrin (and bemusement) of the other 49 States. But, it is what it is, so let's go to the purrrr-dictions:

Huckabee's solid support has a ceiling (IMO). Based on the strong fluctuations of these wacky polls I'd say that there's a decent portion that jumped on the "flavor of the month" appeal of the nice-guy Arkansas Governor. Unlike the secret ballots of a primary, you have to stand up and be counted. And I think this is why the candidate with the more committed support wins. That points to Romney. I think he edges Huck tonight by about 4%. [note: apparently the GOP caucus are by secret ballot, but I still think the persuasion factor by the participants comes into play here.]

The real contest is for number three, between McCain and Thompson. Neither have strong resources or organizations in Iowa so this is anyone's guess. But my gut tells me that Ol' Fred will edge his buddy McCain. Conventional Wisdom says his support peels away from Romney but I'm not so sure. In any case, Romney's turnout operation probably gives him the edge.

Ron Paul has been overlooked in this contest, I think he passes Giuliani who's been largely absent here.

Final numbers:

Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 27%
Thompson: 14%
McCain: 12%
Paul: 9%
Giuliani: 6%
Hunter: 1%

The big story: Ol' Fred ain't dead (yet) and he'll hang around until at least SC.

I s'pose I should make Dem predictions as well:

Obama wins, "You-know-who" squeaks past Edwards for 2nd place. Mike Gravel soils himself. Richardson will continue to badger HRCR Obama about being her his running mate. Dennis Kucinich wears his tinfoil hat, yelling "Mars needs women!" Chris Dodd tries to entice Joe Biden into a "waitress sandwich" at a diner in Dubuque.

Posted by Gary at January 3, 2008 09:40 AM | TrackBack

I think you're about right here, but I think McCain may surprise everyone and finish third (flip-flop his numbers and Fred's), but I'll keep my wallet in my pcket -- that's just a hunch. I'm also thinking Romney and Huckabee will be very close -- within 1%, and I'm not positive Romney finishes first -- I think Huck could still edge him. I think it's a shame that Ron Paul will beat Rudy, but I'm afraid you're right, and about right in the numbers.

I'll believe Obama beats Hillary when I see it. I'd love to see her finish third. I think the Dems go something like Hillary 28%, Obama 26%, Edwards 24% if I had to guess.

If Hillary loses to Obama, you're going to see her go so negative on him it will make James Carville blush.

Posted by: The Abbot at January 3, 2008 11:23 AM