Eight Days Out

After what seems like a campaign that's been waged forEVAH, we're just over one week away from the first contest (thanks to plenty of childish shenanigans over who gets to go first).

At this point, honestly, I don't see You-Know-Who on the Democrat side losing. Her campaign, her organization, her control over that party apparatus, forget it. She's all but won already. Don't believe the press.

As to the Republican side? Eh, it's anybody's guess. I suspect that the air is coming out of the Huck-a-balloon. He may very well finish first in Iowa, but with four other viable contenders Huckabee doesn't have the organization to capitalize on such a win. Plus anything short of a double digit victory will be seen as underperforming.

Fred ain't dead. Yet. His presence in the race didn't make the impact some had predicted but I suspect he'll pull a couple of surprises in the standings between now and Thermonuclear Tuesday on February 5th.

McCain is set to do well in New Hampshire with the help of independents who can legally crash the primary. It's doubtful that it'll prove to be enough to move him forward but as the rats abandon the sinking S.S. Huckabee, he may pick up more support in South Carolina and even Florida.

Rudy needs to depend on a muddled field by the time Florida rolls around but if all the stars align and She-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named is declared the winner on the other side, a Giuliani nomination just might take off.

Romney is positioned for early wins (or strong showings) and has the resources and infrastructure in his campaign to slog it over the long haul. But will that be enough to gain the necessary momentum one month after Iowa when almost thirty states have a go all in one day?

The only thing I know from watching this play out over the last six or seven months is that the convential wisdom is usually slow to catch on with reality by about two or three weeks. It certainly promises to be an interesting ride through the month of January.