December 19, 2007

Is Huck Revving Up That Motorcycle?

With just over two weeks to go until Iowa, Mike Huckabee's lead is starting to recede.

On the Republican side, among (833) likely voters, here are the numbers: Huckabee 28, Romney 25, Thompson 10, McCain 9, Paul 6, Giuliani 6. Among (418) highly likely voters, Romney leads with 28%, then Huckabee 25, Thompson 11, McCain 7, Paul 6, Giuliani 5, Tancredo 4.
Fonzie_jumps_the_shark.bmp

Looks like the shark is being prepared for the big jump.

Posted by Gary at December 19, 2007 09:44 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I've been wondering; if Romney gets the nomination, who his VP would be. McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson all see themselves as "senior" to him in terms of their time in public service, so they'd likely all refuse.

Duncan Hunter or Huckabee seem to be Romney's best choices. Is Huckabee hurting himself in terms of his VP marketability in attacking Romney? Because if McCain, Giuliani, or Thompson get the nomination, I'd have to think that Romney would be on their list as a VP alternative ahead of Huckabee. So while attacking Romney is a tactical advantage in Iowa for Huck, it seems to me to be a strategic disadvantage in that it locks him out of the ticket if he is too strident.

Or maybe it is a way of setting himself up as an alternative to Romney as Giuliani's VP choice? I think if he beats Romney, that may be where he ends up, should Giuliani emerge. I think McCain and Thompson would pick Romney as their VP ahead of Huck.

I think if Huck is the nominee, he goes down to defeat in the general. I could live with him as VP if needed to secure the south with Giuliani or Romney as the top of the ticket. But if McCain or Thompson are the nominee, I think the VP slot is Mitt's.

Posted by: The Abbot at December 19, 2007 11:01 AM

Since 1980, when when Reagan chose GHW Bush to be his running mate, I only can recall one instance where a Presidential Nominee chose a running mate who was an also-ran in that same year - Kerry/Edwards.

As a general rule, the nominee doesn't typically choose his VP from the list of competitors for that year's nomination. There's often too many pull quotes from the primary process that can be used against them in the General.

I'd be very surprised if this year the eventual nominee chose one of the other candidates.

Posted by: Gary at December 19, 2007 11:12 AM

Gen. Petreus for Veep!

Posted by: Robbo the LB at December 19, 2007 11:16 AM

Petraeus/Ackbar

. . . or maybe Jack Bauer. Jack Bauer wouldn't have a running mate because he knows that they have a bad habit of invoking the 25th Amendment when the going gets tough.

Posted by: The Abbot at December 19, 2007 01:49 PM