Ol' Fred: "I'm Not Going To Dance To Anyone's Tune"

There's been a lot of hoo-hah this past week or so about the rumblings of certain Evangelical leaders and their disdain for a number of the GOP candidates. The rumored "Rudy revolt" where organizations like Focus On The Family would seek a third party candidate if Giuliani gets the nomination made headlines as well as FOTF's head, James Dobson's criticism of Fred Thompson.

Ol' Fred's response? Don't read too much into it. On Hannity & Colmes last night:

A gentleman who has never met me, who has never talked to me, I've never talked to him on the phone. I did have one of his aides call me up and kind of apologize, the first time he attacked me and said I wasn't a Christian…

I don't know the gentleman. I do know that I have a lot of people who are of strong faith and are involved in the same organizations that he is in, that I've met with, Jeri and I both have met with, and I like to think that we have some strong friendships and support there…

Now this is one of two GOP candidates putting themselves out there as the conservative choice for Republicans. I wonder if his campaign's internal polling (as well as Giuliani's) is giving them a picture of the Christian Conservative voting bloc that is more pragmatic and less judgemental than Dobson and other self-proclaimed leaders of that community. All Presidential candidates have to weigh what they say and adjust their strategy based on the reality of their polling. If Dobson's position was reflected by a majority of that demographic, I would think that Thompson would be a bit more conciliatory in reaching out to him.

But his comments above almost represent a dismissal of Dobson's influence.

Patrick Hynes (a McCain man) of Ankle-Biting Pundits sees one of three scenarios with Giuliani:

First, Rudy Giuliani will not win the Republican nomination and the point will be moot.

Second, Rudy Giuliani will win the Republican nomination, but lose in the General Election because evangelical Christians, the most powerful voting bloc in American politics, will adhere to the principles of its leaders and support a third-party candidate.

Or third, Rudy Giuliani will win the Republican nomination and the General Election because evangelical Christians ignore the advice of its leaders and support Giuliani despite his pro-choice position.

Each of these has significant consequences for the future of the Republican Party, which we could debate about until the cows come home.

And scenarios one and two are certainly possible. But between the dangers we face from terrorism and the prospect of "she who must not be named" sitting in the White House, I seriously wonder if the voters don't have a more realistic perspective when they head to the voting booths.

And thus far, I don't see any of the top tier GOP candidates "dancing" to Dobson's tune. And if the third scenario were to prevail, he might just find that after next November there's no place at the table for him.