Yeah, right

Dingy Harry Reid thinks the Dems will pick up at least five Senate seats this fall, including CT and VA, which will require knocking off Lieberman and George Allen. I just don't see it happening. Steve-O what do you think of Reid's prediction?

YIPS from Steve-O:

Here goes: it's quite realistic to project the Democrats picking up the following currently Republican seats in the Senate this fall--

LIKELY DONK PICK-UPS--
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania

QUITE POSSIBLE DONK PICK-UPS--
Ohio
Montana

Each of these four are in trouble for one reason or another. That leaves Missouri as the big ticket which would get the Senate to 50-50 (according to the Big Kahuna, who I have no reason to doubt, Tennessee is also possible). That would leave the Senate tied at 50ies, which would leave Cheney as the tie-breaker.

Except......

I'm not sure what the rules of voting are for Impeachment, though, because the Vice-President doesn't preside in an Impeachment Trial---it's the Chief Justice. I don't know how a tie is resolved, and would have to look that up.

As Robbo would say, Just Sayin'.

As to Virginia, Allen's seat is about as safe as a Senate seat goes for this year, but remember one thing: while this is his third statewide race, it's only his first defense of his Senate seat, which can be tricky. Jim Webb is an enigma---it says a lot about the state of the Democratic Party that they will defenestrate and then exile Joe Lieberman---who votes with the party 90% of the time---as being an apostate, but endorse someone like Webb who, except for his strong opposition to the Iraq War, is in effect a conservative Reagan Republican (except, perhaps, for that Eleventh Commandment bit, and the opportunistic stab in the back, but hey, who's perfect?) Does he have a chance of winning? This year, more so than most years, anything's possible, but I wouldn't bet the ant farm on it by any stretch of the imagination. I do also think it's a bit of a danger for the Donks to place so much emphasis on the Warner Magic(TM)---the ability of Mark Warner to win in Republican Virginia. After all, Republicans have been governors of Massachusetts now for the past 16-ish years, and that hasn't exactly translated into a national political plan.

What I think would be the hilarious outcome would be for the Donks to get their six seats, but with Liebs winning, and pulling a Jeffords and caucusing with the Republicans. The perfidy! Also, the Mikey Moore/Kos purge plan of this week is going to not play too well in the Senate--look for someone like Salazar to pull a Nighthorse-Campbell and switch parties if they press to hard on the Senate's prerogatives.

The worse thing, though, for Republicans to do going into the fall is fall victim to the cocoon effect, and only believe what they read on Red State. It's what the Donks did in 04, and why they were so hilariously deranged when the lost---all the news sources they were reading had them winning triumphantly. Don't drive angry, but do lock and load.