Llama liveblogging--day two

Here's our map--will it hold out?
UPDATE: It's looking like our original map from yesterday of 286 EVs might be the winner....

3:30 AM

Instapundit goes dark. Neener!

3:21 AM

Bill Richardson promises to steal New Mexico on live tee-vee

The lead in Nevada for Dubya grows to 23K, while Ohio the divide is 140K

2:50 AM

Edwards was underwhelming. But.....let's face it, if they want to wait to concede until Ohio is all in, that's their druthers. Dubya should not get snippy now---now's the time for some statesmanship.

The margins right now:

Nevada---14K for Bush
Iowa---12K for Bush
Ohio---127K for Bush

2:17 AM

Kathleen the Cake-Eater is still blogging, and has a math question. Frankly, my brain is too scrambled (70 something posts in one day can do that!), but my sense is that they are projecting based on how districts have gone in past. Imperfect, but a high degree of accuracy. Often.

Only Megan McArdle is holding on at Instapundit. INDC Journal has gone dark, as has

2:09 AM

Ace has a tiny picture of Kim Richards up. Patience, mon!

Apparently, the Kerry campaign is NOT dispatching any of their vaunted teams of guerilla lawyers to Ohio....

The popular vote has stayed relatively constant all night at 51%-48, right now about 3,656M.

1:56 AM---election day(s) post #65, and I'm beat.

Russert and Brokaw are talking about 2008....someone needs to kick their arses. To be perfectly honest, if it were my guy in Ohio, I would be pissed about the coverage call by NBC and Fox. There's a dynamic in place--once Bush declares for New Mexico, Iowa, or Nevada, it will put it over the top for NBC, and they'll declare Bush the winner. This is exactly the problem that was created in 2000 by the networks, and they're doing it again. I think that's why I need to stay up and watch this till the bitter end. It's a 102K vote margin---which is huge---yet still....

And it looks like Daschle is out....

Hindrocket and Wonkette were just on. Wonkette was---get this---glib, flib, and wearing a too-tight sweater.

As Sgt. Hulka would say, "I'm getting too old for this shit!"

1:27 AM

Bush/Iowa is surging at Tradesports....

Dan Rather is dripping with contempt.

1:18 AM

On the verge.....

Wizbang

Steve Green....

Rusty

The Commissar...

If you're still up, drop me a note in the Tasty Bits Mail Sack and I'll post your link

1:13 AM

It burnszzzzzz.......

Lileks reports in.

1:09 AM

Tuned into CBS for the first time all night---Dan Rather is belligerent, badgering the on-air correspondent challenging how Karl Rove thinks they can get to 271.

NBC is putting it at 269 for Bush at the moment, and note that if Kerry runs the table---still a possibility!---the Republicans hold a 30-15 delegation advantage in the House which would decide a tie. Assuming no faithless electors.....
12:59 AM

NBC just calls Ohio for Bush, and refered to him as reelected. No big screen graphic. (Michele notes that on CNN Carville concedes Ohio. Hole-eee Crap!)

It all comes down to Nevada and New Mexico. They're currently at Tradesports at $74 and $95 respectively....

12:56 AM

Here's the Nevada returns.

12:52 AM

Bush at $94 at Tradesports....I'm having trouble breathing.....

PREDICTION: The far left conspiracy theory will center on the dissonance between the exit polls and the final tallies. If this all works out.....

12:50 AM

Ace is breaking out the cowbell.....apparently Fox has called it for Dubya. That would be it.

12:40 AM

Forget Zogby--here's your new bellweather pollster. And don't forget Tarrance Group and the Battleground Poll.

12:25 AM

NBC declares Florida for Dubya. The Bush Reelect contract hits $86.3, an almost $60 swing since dinner.

Mikey Moore retreats from Florida.

12:15 AM

The Guardian's Operation Clark County gets out the vote---for Dubya!

I blame Karl Rove!

Also, Nicole over at Potomac Ponderings is on a liveblog roll. Go over and give her some Yips. And The Brain? He's mocking Susan Estrich, claiming she's channelling Carol Channing. Be nice now.....

11:50---Wisconsin has dropped to $40, and Iowa down to $25. So withdrawing Wisconsin's ten EVs give us the LLamabutcher Projection of 279 EVs for Dubya.

UPDATE: Wisconsin is back up to $55, and Nevada is at $67. Our projection is back to 289 EVs.