Holy crap!

Jim Jeffords is not running for reelection.

Unlike Minnesota, the Republicans probably don't have a chance of picking up this seat: like Sarbanes' soon to be vacated seat in Maryland, this one should stay with the Democrats.

This leaves the list of vulnerable Senators going into 06 as:

DEMS: Stabenow, Bingham, Cantwell, Dayton (retiring--open seat race), and Nelson (of Florida, not the Nelson of Nebraska; although the two of them should double-date sometime with the Kerr(e)ys.)

Of these five, the target rich environments are Washington state and Minnesota.

REPS: Chafee

Yeah, I know, he's about as much a Republican as Jeffords. Chafee I've used as an example to my Congress class as the failure to seize the advantage of position: his big chance to become something more than a marginal seat-warmer filling in for dear old dad would've been to jump ship after Jeffords. The value of this to the Democrats would have been inestimable---now, Chafee switching parties wouldn't crack the top of the newscast reports on WJAR in Providence.

The Republicans have fourteen pretty safe Senate seats (as much as any Senate seat is safe post Thune/Daschele), while the Democrats have 13.

At the minimum, then, a one seat Republican pickup in the Senate in fall 06 is a pretty safe bet.

UPDATE: Is Santorum vulnerable? Axis Sully seems to think so. Given his track record as of late, I would say things should be going well for the junior senator from Pennsylvania.