October 28, 2004

Paint it red! Tradesports electoral college projection

A quick scan of Tradesports political futures market on the electoral college, a feature we've been following since last February.

Currently, the "Bush wins the Electoral Votes of state X" contract is trading above $80 in twenty five states worth a total of 213 EVs.

In the $55-$79 trading range, there are six states: Nevada (5 EVs) $76.7; Colorado (9 EVs) $71; Florida (27 EVs) $60; Iowa (7 EVs) $60; New Mexico (5 EVs) $58.8; and Wisconsin (10 EVs) $55.5. Added together, they represent 63 EVs.

Add it up: that's 276 Electoral Votes.

Ohio is currently trading at $54. If he's able to seal the deal there, that's a total of 296 EVs.

What's in striking distance, or what are the states that they need to make Kerry spend resources in in the run up to the finish:

Cow Hampshire ($39)
Minnesota ($36.4)

Posted by Steve at October 28, 2004 12:57 AM | TrackBack
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