October 28, 2004
Paint it red! Tradesports electoral college projection
A quick scan of Tradesports political futures market on the electoral college, a feature we've been following since last February.
Currently, the "Bush wins the Electoral Votes of state X" contract is trading above $80 in twenty five states worth a total of 213 EVs.
In the $55-$79 trading range, there are six states: Nevada (5 EVs) $76.7; Colorado (9 EVs) $71; Florida (27 EVs) $60; Iowa (7 EVs) $60; New Mexico (5 EVs) $58.8; and Wisconsin (10 EVs) $55.5. Added together, they represent 63 EVs.
Add it up: that's 276 Electoral Votes.
Ohio is currently trading at $54. If he's able to seal the deal there, that's a total of 296 EVs.
What's in striking distance, or what are the states that they need to make Kerry spend resources in in the run up to the finish:
Cow Hampshire ($39)
Minnesota ($36.4)