Paint it Red

Zogby's tracking numbers for today--Wizbang has further analysis.

Zogby is key as he was the closest in 2000 (and 1996, if memory serves correctly), and I'll be following his numbers as well as those of Tradesports over the next two and a half weeks.

UPDATE: Andy's getting nervous..... Plus, he has a long-ish defense of how his views haven't changed on things. I'm going to do a larger piece on this, but I think it can be summed up like this: there was more money to be made on the speaking circuit as the former supporter of Bush who is now his chief detractor, in the same way there was a lot of money to be made as the former editor of TNR and supporter of President Clinton as the chief detractor to Al Gore.

My only prediction on this follows: come 2008, Andrew Sullivan will be the chief detractor from and antagonist to the president, regardless of whether it is President Bush or Kerry. If Kerry wins, look for a dewy-eyed honeymoon until, oh, mid summer 2006, when, from the swing in P-Town, he'll discover some new rage and disgust with the administration and then, with the beagle in tow, mount a crusade to get John McCain to run. If Bush wins, look for no honeymoon and the crusade for McCain to start in January. That is unless the exploding toilet interferes, which should push it off to March.

Unless, that is, we're nuked by Iran, of course. But that's a chance we're willing to take to pad the college speaking circuit fees (at $10 grand a pop).....