October 13, 2004

So, who won?

First of all: Schieffer (and consquently CBS News) blew it, big time. That was probably the worst performance of a debate questioner from the Dinosaur media since Bernie Shaw's 1988 fiasco.

What did the markets think?

Here's Kerry's election contract at Tradesports for today. Notice the drop during the debate:

kerry debate 3.gif

Here's the same time period for Bush:

bush debate 3.gif

True, the market showed Bush doing well in the first debate, but I have a hunch about this one. The test will be what the market is thinking in about 2 hours.

Bush certainly looked, acted, and spoke human today. If he had this type of performance in Debate 1, we'd be still talking about Oompah-loomphagate and Kos would be strapping on the vest and heading into the nearest Sbarros, only to accidently blow up Oliver Willis, drowning his sorrows in a gallon of calzone dipping sauce.....


The creator of worlds is not in the house, but I'm sure for a divine reason. Our pal Nicole at Potomac Ponderings has a great blow by blow, partially via IM with an imaginary friend. Dean gives it to Bush, but hey, what does he know he says? Gordo has no opinion, but an idea for political mischief--count me in! Right on Red weighs in:

Kerry was better than Bush in general, but that’s not hard to do when that vintage relic Bob Schieffer keeps throwing soft balls right up the middle of the plate to Kerry. Nearly all of the questions seemed completely irrelevant, post 9/11. It was just retro. I kept waiting for Willie Horton to show up.

That's perfect---zombie ghost of Lee Atwater walks in, dragging Willie Horton, sits in the front row screaming to Schieffer like Horseshack "OOOOOOO! OOOOOOO! Pick me! Pick me!"

Okay....back to the roundup. Goldstein's nipples are cutting glass, but I'm not sure if the Goldstein Nipple Index is a reliable election indicator. I guess that's why I got into political science..... Steve Green is declaring John Kerry to be the Panderer-in-Chief--but didn't we abandon the 25th Amendment to give Billy that title for life? Glenn sees a crack in the Kerry PR facade. The Brain is still processing, but links earlier to this interesting observation on poverty rates. Bill must be out smoking crack with Marion Barry again, because he thinks Scheiffer did alright. Currying favor with your new pals, Bill? (I'm yanking your leg, buddy!) Ann Althouse gives the verdict that keeps Susan Estrich up at night, screaming: "Dukakis-like." Kevin at Wizbang sees a draw.

Is it just me or is debate night no fun without Allahpundit?

BTW, if you haven't seen it, Bill Hobbs' CNN parody page is a hoot.

ONE HOUR LATER: Bush is down $4 and Kerry up $3.90 since the end of the debate, putting things back where they were before things started.....Kerry right now is at his peak on Friday night, $44.

UPDATE: The Fox local news from DC has just run with the Tony Soprano quote 3 times....the Dick Cheney's a lesbian quote just ran twice.

UPDATE: Glenn links, but with the caveat that he thinks people might be gaming the market to create the appearance of push. I have a hunch that he might be right---the question is whether that continues over the course of the following days. Here's our post on the markets following Debate Two, with the following comment:

The one flaw in the markets is that they could be manipulated by people dumping money to give the appearance of momentum. I don't know if that's the case here---to be perfectly honest, I would be suspicious of that view. But then again its not like George Soros has no experience with this

I've waited a year to say this: Advantage, LLamabutchers!

ALMOST TWO HOURS LATER: Well, I did say check back in two hours, and here goes:

bush debate 3 final.gif

LLama Jinx or the Revenge of Soros? You make the call.


I'm going to bed, as I have to rightwing radio tomorrow morning at 7:10 AM.

More on how efficient these markets are in a post above.

Posted by Steve at October 13, 2004 10:38 PM | TrackBack

Someone try and tell me the markets arent being screwed with

Bush was up 60 almost 61 to 39-40
In span of two seconds

Posted by: CARL at October 14, 2004 12:06 AM

Looking at the trade sports line, if you look at the bid/ask data, you see some interesting data on the Kerry side. There's a bid for 981 shares at $.43, but the next bid drops to $.39. So the reality is that the market for Kerry shares is probably pretty soft at the current $.43 number since there's only one guy willing to pay that $.43.

The trading on the Kerry market is about 1/20th the size of the Bush market so its much easier to skew. That's probably also showing that Bush's chances are even better, because there's less of a point in trading shares you think might become worthless, because the only way to make profit is on market movements.

The Bush market is much tighter, with the big dogs with 1000 share trades are split at $.54 bid and $.57 ask. The Kerry market has the split at $.43 or $.39 vs. $.46.

So my conclusion is that the Kerry market isn't going to be very predictive, but the Bush market being more interesting.

Posted by: Opinionated Bastard at October 14, 2004 03:35 AM

Currying favor with your new pals, Bill? (I'm yanking your leg, buddy!)

Perhaps I am biased, but I didn't get animated about the questions, other than think some of them were dumb (not so much biased). The last softball, for example, was such a question that played to Bush that I would have tolerated 2 questions asking Bus to apologize.

BTW, I get a chuckle out of how you quickly piddled down your leg with a "JJ, HA-HA, LOL" after taking your swipe. FEAR ME Llamas!

Posted by: Bill from INDC at October 14, 2004 01:06 PM
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