October 06, 2004

The morning after poll roundup

Zogby--the most accurate pollster in 2000 and 96---has Bush up by 1, 46-45. RealClearPolitics is showing a 1.7 spread in the three way (insert Scalia jokes here) and .3 in the head to head. In the Tradesports political futures markets Bush reelect is trading back above $61, and Kerry elected is trading below $40---the difference here being a measurement of what people think is going to happen rather than what they want to have happen. I'm not sure if I would put much stock in this poll from the Washington Post which saw Bush with the same spread as the week after the Convention (right before Rathergate went en fuego), but, hey, whatever floats your boat. (It's the outlier--Pew has a five point spread, all the others are within one or two.)

UPDATE: The Powerline guys are sifting through the entrails of the polls and are not liking what they find...

Posted by Steve at October 6, 2004 07:53 AM | TrackBack
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