September 30, 2004

Post #20---Why Dubya Won

Bush won because he sounded like Gary Cooper from High Noon,
while Kerry sounded like Mrs. Olsen from "little house on the prairie" (heavens, how much is this fighting terrorism costing!)

Also, because markets don't lie while MSM pundits do, Bush's reelection contract is on the rise at Tradesports, while the Kerry Election contract is falling. (Up $.70 for Bush to $66.7, Kerry down $.60 to $35.4) (see updates below at least to answer Glenn's question---yes, they are responding)

I feel a little like Randolph or Mortimer Duke here watching the Trading Screen.....mmmmmmmmm....Pork bellies, up!.....Frozen orange juice, down!.......Kerry, escargot!

Third reason: let me use a tennis analogy. Why did Pete Sampras always win? Because he was steady, consistent, and had the fewest unforced errors. Long-haired pre-Steffi Agassi had the style, the hair, and the moves, but Pete has twice as many Grand Slam trophies in his den. Why? He was more consistent.

Bush did what he had to do: no unforced errors, played to his strength, and didn't try to be what he isn't.

Kerry, oddly enough, was at his best when the two were talking about their kids--you could see the bobblehead routine stop and he acted, oddly, human. But that was around the eightieth minute.

BTW, the numbering got screwed up when I put in the pshop of the John Kerry Bobblehead doll....

Supremo LLama YIPS to our old pal INDC Bill and to the Creator of Worlds for the linkety-bling bling. Thanks, guys!

FURTHER UPDATE: The non-committed voter in the house is refusing to answer political questions at the moment, and I sense it's in my best interests to leave it at that.

MORE FROM THE MARKETS: Check out the tracking of the market during the debates. Here's the "Bush reelected" contract:

bush reelect contract.gif
The market time is five hours ahead.

Here's Kerry during the same time period:

kerry market debate 1.gif

Notice the fear early in the day, which lessened over the course of the evening when he didn't pull an Al Gore. Bush's numbers rose during the day as Kerry's fell (coinciding with the "we're going to tear the lights off with a screwdriver" spin) then both realigned right at the start, and Bush has bounced around while Kerry has rose from the low of the day.

Here's the list of all their election contracts, which I'm too beat at the moment to comb through.

A couple of things stand out though: look at the Kerry/Bush contracts on who will win the popular vote---Kerry is rising in that one (by $4). Bush fell during the day but is rising now too (still down $1.9 for the day). The Bush electoral college collection numbers are rising, with the contract betting that he gets at least 300 electoral votes up to $52. In terms of individual states, huge swings all around. Big gains for Bush in the Florida contract (+$2.3 to $67.3), Arkansas, and West Virginia (+$5 to $86), with big downturns for Ohio (-$5.9 to $67.1), as well as New Mexico and Oregon.

We'll revisit these numbers over the next 48 hours to see how the market judges the outcomes, and compare them to the quickie @800 person polls the networks will run with.

END of the Day analysis: Kerry dropped during the day, rose in the evening, closed even. Bush rose during the day, dropped in the evening, rose during the debate, dropped during the spin period after, down $2.3 for the day.

Posted by Steve at September 30, 2004 10:59 PM | TrackBack

Market response isn't really evidence that Bush won the debate; just evidence that he didn't fuck the debate up enough to lose the election.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer at October 1, 2004 12:37 AM

Why bend over backwards trying to justify that Bush got his ass whooped rather than admit that Kerry scored some solid points? Fantasy market projections???

Sheesh, try not to be such a partisan lackey.

Posted by: Marc at October 1, 2004 05:52 AM

Glanced through your site. Frightening stuff. I hope you do not represent the majority of your people.

America used to be a country that represented a higher standard of morality and decency. Now it seems more like a country of mouth breathing idiots. Do you simply refuse to look at the hell that America has brought to so many people outside of it's privileged borders or do you, like your president, simply not care?

Imagine if the Iraqi army did to your children what America's has done to so many of Iraq's (would it matter if it was "collateral damage"). You make jokes, create funny pictures, exaggerate for the sake of a laugh and you ignore the fact that America's aggression has brought total hell to so many innocent people.

Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction, no real military capability and was never a haven for terrorists. Now, America has opened the doors to a flood of evil minded muslim fundamentalists and they are pouring into the newly "liberated" Iraq. All thanks to the Bush administration. Kill terrorists, hunt them down, no one would criticize you for it. But why Iraq? What did they do to deserve this? Nothing.

Your ignorance seems as willful as it is great. Your country is slowly turning into something evil and none of you appear to care. Wake up before it is too late.

Posted by: Marc Regan at October 2, 2004 02:53 AM

I know you want to support Bush and all..hey rock on, but the guy blankly stared out into space for atleast 10 seconds, he didn't know what he was doing. Sorry, but your lord and master fell, hard and fast.

Also, everybody is saying how he'll do well in the next debate because it's a town hall setting. I'm sure that's true, he'll debate better, but if I recall correctly it's on the economy....he's screwed the economy over, he's lost over a million jobs, there's no way he can win the next debate

Posted by: Michael Johnson at October 5, 2004 03:39 AM
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