Post #20---Why Dubya Won

Bush won because he sounded like Gary Cooper from High Noon,
while Kerry sounded like Mrs. Olsen from "little house on the prairie" (heavens, how much is this fighting terrorism costing!)

Also, because markets don't lie while MSM pundits do, Bush's reelection contract is on the rise at Tradesports, while the Kerry Election contract is falling. (Up $.70 for Bush to $66.7, Kerry down $.60 to $35.4) (see updates below at least to answer Glenn's question---yes, they are responding)

I feel a little like Randolph or Mortimer Duke here watching the Trading Screen.....mmmmmmmmm....Pork bellies, up!.....Frozen orange juice, down!.......Kerry, escargot!

Third reason: let me use a tennis analogy. Why did Pete Sampras always win? Because he was steady, consistent, and had the fewest unforced errors. Long-haired pre-Steffi Agassi had the style, the hair, and the moves, but Pete has twice as many Grand Slam trophies in his den. Why? He was more consistent.

Bush did what he had to do: no unforced errors, played to his strength, and didn't try to be what he isn't.

Kerry, oddly enough, was at his best when the two were talking about their kids--you could see the bobblehead routine stop and he acted, oddly, human. But that was around the eightieth minute.

BTW, the numbering got screwed up when I put in the pshop of the John Kerry Bobblehead doll....

Supremo LLama YIPS to our old pal INDC Bill and to the Creator of Worlds for the linkety-bling bling. Thanks, guys!

FURTHER UPDATE: The non-committed voter in the house is refusing to answer political questions at the moment, and I sense it's in my best interests to leave it at that.

MORE FROM THE MARKETS: Check out the tracking of the market during the debates. Here's the "Bush reelected" contract:

The market time is five hours ahead.

Here's Kerry during the same time period:

Notice the fear early in the day, which lessened over the course of the evening when he didn't pull an Al Gore. Bush's numbers rose during the day as Kerry's fell (coinciding with the "we're going to tear the lights off with a screwdriver" spin) then both realigned right at the start, and Bush has bounced around while Kerry has rose from the low of the day.

Here's the list of all their election contracts, which I'm too beat at the moment to comb through.

A couple of things stand out though: look at the Kerry/Bush contracts on who will win the popular vote---Kerry is rising in that one (by $4). Bush fell during the day but is rising now too (still down $1.9 for the day). The Bush electoral college collection numbers are rising, with the contract betting that he gets at least 300 electoral votes up to $52. In terms of individual states, huge swings all around. Big gains for Bush in the Florida contract (+$2.3 to $67.3), Arkansas, and West Virginia (+$5 to $86), with big downturns for Ohio (-$5.9 to $67.1), as well as New Mexico and Oregon.

We'll revisit these numbers over the next 48 hours to see how the market judges the outcomes, and compare them to the quickie @800 person polls the networks will run with.

END of the Day analysis: Kerry dropped during the day, rose in the evening, closed even. Bush rose during the day, dropped in the evening, rose during the debate, dropped during the spin period after, down $2.3 for the day.