September 26, 2004

Paint it red

Numbers wrap:

Real Clear Politics Poll Summary (as of Sunday night):

Two way head to head 7 poll average Bush 48.2 Kerry 43.8, with only Rasmussen tied (but on Rasmussen's site they are reporting a 1 point Bush lead).

Their Electoral College
has Bush with 291 Electoral Votes (21 more than necessary to win), with Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Oregon as toss-ups.

This set of tracking polls from the Tarrance Group are fascinating too: this poll was quite reliable in 2000.

Tradesports Electoral Futures Market has the Bush Reelected contract trading at $69.7, with the market for the number of electoral votes for Bush to win at 300.

Zogby has the electoral college at Bush 241 Kerry 264 and Bush with a 3 point lead in the head to head.

Finally, Larry Sabato's two cents:

As we pass the sixth week until the election, it is clear that while John Kerry won the spring and early summer, Bush won August and the first-half of September because of the Swift Boat Vets controversy and the considerable success of the Republican National Convention. The president enters the final six weeks of the campaign 2004 with about a 5 percent lead in the polls, but with large challenges to come: Iraq, possible terrorist action before the election, the debates, the October jobs numbers, and other unknown issues that will surely emerge to affect the election results. There can be no doubt that this is a highly competitive and unpredictable election with six weeks to go, but Bush is in a slightly better position that Kerry to win at this point.
Posted by Steve at September 26, 2004 11:58 PM | TrackBack
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