September 16, 2004

HFS!.....MARKET BREAK IN ACTION!!!! election futures contract update:

Bush reelected now trading at $69 (the highest its been since late December and the capture of Saddam)

Here's the chart that goes up until last night:
bush 9 15.gif

here's the chart showing the "Kerry elected President" contract since the 60 Minutes story broke:

kerry dan.gif

Kerry was trading at 40.7, and dropped to $36.0 yesterday. Today, after CBS invoked the Fuhrman defense the contract dropped five dollars, down to $31.5.

Kerry's contract (the futures market's assessment of the likelihood of Kerry winning the election)has dropped 23 percent since CBS ran with forged documents to smear Bush. Thanks, Dan!

What about the swing states, that went marginally to Gore that Kerry needs to win if he has any hope of winning?

Wisconsin: last traded at $59


Minnesota: last traded at $41.7


New Jersey: last traded at $24.3


The only state that went to Bush in 2000 that is not going his way in the markets is New Hampshire (currently trading at $41.0).

The state that the media (and history) declared Bush must win: Ohio, currently trading at $78


The other Gore states that Kerry needs to carry:

Pennsylvania (21 Electoral votes) $43.4
Iowa (7 EV) $45

(These are all expressed as futures contracts of the event of GW Bush winning the electoral votes of that state).

Add it up:

States in which futures markets on Bush Reelect is trading above $80 (out of a possible $100): 25 states with a total of 224 electoral votes

States trading between $60 and $79--four states (Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and West Virginia) for a total of 57 electoral votes.

Add it up: altogether, investors/bettors are picking that Bush will win handily at least these 29 states with a total of 281 electoral votes.

That doesn't include Iowa and Wisconisn (7 and 10 EVs), which they place in realistic possible striking distance, as well as Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Oregon(7) and Pennsylvania (21).

Thank you, Dan Rather!

UPDATE: Compare this to our assessment of the futures market on the Electoral College back on March 18th.

Posted by Steve at September 16, 2004 11:06 AM | TrackBack
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