September 14, 2004

Electronic Political Futures Market Update

At British firm

Bush reelect: $63.0 (total volume of contracts 503,301)
Kerry elected: $35.2

Bush wins popular vote: $59.6 (up $4.6 today, up from $42 one month ago)
Kerry wins popular vote: $42.0 (down $3.0 today, down from $57 one month ago)

Here's the lifetime chart for the Bush Re-elect contract:


UPDATE: Baby Seal Club has the polling roundup. Biggest surprise: New Jersey has Bush within the margin of error behind Kerry (46-43).


here's what Tradesports has on the contract "Bush wins electoral votes of NJ"


For comparison, here's Ohio:


and Florida:


two states Bush needs to win to get to 270 in the Electoral College.

Posted by Steve at September 14, 2004 02:37 PM | TrackBack
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