August 27, 2004
Swift Boat Lift?
I have been watching the Iowa Elections Market in a languid way for some months now. Over most of August, shares on Bush and Kerry have been trading pretty close to each other. However, have a look at the last couple days - suddenly Bush has shot back up to about 53 cents a share and Kerry has sunk back down to 46 cents - the biggest split since the beginning of the month.
I'm not saying this is a definite trend - given the gyrations of the past few months it's impossible to make such a judgement this early. But I find the magnitude of the shift over such a short period to be fascinating. I wonder if this is a sign that folks who put their money where their mouth is are beginning to believe Kerry's ship has some serious leaks below the water line.
Be sure to check back to the chart often.
Posted by Robert at August 27, 2004 04:44 PM | TrackBackDon't take that stuff too seriously. It's not really much more accurate than polls or expert opinions. Well, maybe a little.
Posted by: David Weisman at August 27, 2004 08:43 PMThe difference is that with the IEM, folks are putting down real money to back up their predictions. I reckon that's worth a bit more than the average poll answer.
Posted by: Robert the Llama Butcher at August 27, 2004 11:50 PMLet's just say that Kerry's campaign theme song should be "My Heart Will Go On."
Posted by: BarCodeKing at August 28, 2004 05:30 PMLook over at Intrade.com. The spread is even greater. Or see this:
http://www.thepamphleteer.blogspot.com/2004_08_01_thepamphleteer_archive.html#109373486710090792
Posted by: patch at August 29, 2004 12:30 AM
