November 07, 2005
The Virginia Governor's Race
Here's the Tradesports contract chart for Tim Kaine winning the race.
Notice a distinct lack of any post-Katrina bounce, or otherwise tied into larger Republican national issues.
Why the upsurge? Beats me. More later.
Yips! from Robbo - I dunno, but I got the chance to shake hands with the soon-to-be-historical-footnote Third Party Candidate at the Metro the other day. If the race is extremely close as many people are saying, does anybody know how this guy might effect it one way or the other, if at all?
Why? WaPo putting out polling info and stories that Kaine is going to win. A potential ploy to throw the election "their" way.
Posted by: Troll at November 7, 2005 06:07 PMOnce again--out on a limb: "Taliban Bob" McDonnell for Attorney General and Bill Bolling for Lt. Governor by comfortable margins and Kilgore in a squeaker. This is an off-year election and the it will decided by who gets their base ot the polls.
Posted by: LMC at November 7, 2005 09:13 PMPolls have understated the ultimate Republican turnout in the governor's race since 1989 (I'm blanking on whether it was the case in 2001, but if memory serves it was that way in 93 and 97). A number of different theories, none which seem to be all inclusive.
One important element of the campaign IMHO is that Kilgore never really established a positive image in his ads of what he was trying to do etc. until the last few days. Too late? Not sure.
Posted by: Steve the LLamabutcher at November 7, 2005 11:11 PMYep, it was in the case in '01 as well. Warner was up by 10 points in the polls but he only won by five, keeping the VA average skew towards the Dems intact.
Posted by: HayZeus at November 8, 2005 11:09 AM
