The inside angle on the Virginia Governor's Race

Here's my prediction: if Kilgore (the Republican) wins, no big story. If Kaine (the Democrat) wins, it's indicative of the demise of Republican majority status in Congress and the deathknell of the Bush presidency.

Part of the reason it's close is that Kilgore has run an abysmal campaign---it's been comically negative until the last few days. Kaine is lackluster, and looks like a Law & Order villain---the mild mannered professor or head librarian who turns out to be a serial killer.

The other main reason it's close is the enormous popularity of incumbent Governor Mark Warner, who is going to run for president. Centrist technocrat Democrat wins in heavily Red State by getting support outside of the blue metro enclaves, blah blah blah. Believe it if you want, there's a core there to it. Yet, what doesn't translate nationally is that Warner's major accomplishment as governor that benefits the southern and southwestern parts of the state in particular (as well as blue NoVa) was his high stakes power play that got Virginia Tech into the ACC. And for this Red Virginia (or more properly Maroon and Orange) Virginia will love him forever.

Well now, this has been a crappy weekend for me, as I've been fighting off a low grade intestinal thing, but I'll say this: in the LLamabutcher household, there is now one day a year where we can root for the University of Miami, "Felony U" on the verdant plains of Coral Gables.

SO Stevie is happy: Miami 27, VT 7.