Virginia Governor's Race Update

It's Kaine, the Democrat, with a nice 50K vote cushion. Ross Potts, the Ross Perot of the race, will cost Kilgore @1.5%, but not enough to make the overall difference.

What does this mean?

1. This is big time news for Mark Warner's presidential ambitions. This is Warner's reelection, in a state where the governor cannot serve consecutive terms. Warner's popularity is up around 80% for a variety of reasons (including but not limited to getting Virginia Tech into the ACC).

Here's why Warner is bad nooz for Republicans in 2008: he's rich, so can self finance, but made his money the old fashioned way (telecom auctions), so can't be tagged with the silver spoon. He's telegenic in a very dorky sort of way, but after the last two presidential elections America just might be ready for a Dork as president.

Most of all, he can win--big time--in a very Red State, by appealing across party lines focusing on issues of governance: The Dork who can Govern isn't exactly "Tippacanoe and Tyler Too" but it just might be the magic necessary to win.

Last, and most important, he's not tagged by the stench of the Clinton's, and their ability to get Republicans absolutely apoplectic. He's not tied at all into the Deaniac over the cliff crowd, and most of all, he's not part of the Vietnam generation. There's a reason the Democrats have only cracked 50% of the total vote once since the 1968 Riot Convention in Chicago (and that once was the abberation of 1976, where Carter barely won.) And that reason is Vietnam.

The question is whether the Democratic Party is smart and shrewd enough to grasp that opportunity.

Right.

What does this mean for Republicans nationally and in the commonwealth? Not much. Kilgore ran a crappy, negative campaign where he never really defined himself with the voters. The Republicans are the majority party in the state, and they need to grow into that in terms of understanding how to govern.

Nationally, it just really doesn't mean that much: since 1989, the Virginians have elected a governor of the opposite party of the president elected the year before. 1988-Bush (R) 41, 1989-Wilder (D); 1992 Clinton (D), 1993-Allen (R); 1996 Clinton (D), 1997 Gilmore (R); 2000 Bush (R) 43, 2001 Warner (D); 2004 Bush (R), 2005 apparently Kaine (D).

Not much of a trend that fits with any of the MSM's "Bush is toast" mantra.

Yips! from Robbo: Ladies and Gentlemen, I have absolutely, positively nothing to add to this. But one thought occurs to me - what are the odds of an all-Virginia race in '08, Warner vs. Allen?