SENATE REPUBLICANS GOING NUCLEAR

It is about time they pulled the trigger on this one. Dick Cheney was quoted over the weekend he would break a tie, if necessary, which sounds like Rove has counted noses. Joe Biden and Harry Reid are suddenly talking about negotiation which sounds like weakness. Frist will not negotiate (nor should he) and the Republicans need to settle the issue once and for all. The chief justice will almost certainly retire this summer and then all hell will break loose unless it is clear 51 is the magic number, not 60. BTW, I may be just dense, but each house of Congress sets its own rules. If the Dems do not like the rules, elect 51 libs as senators and change them.

YIPS from Steve: I'm going to respectfully dissent on this one. I think they started this fight too early---and by "they" I mean Bill Frist, who saw this as a way to launch his presidential campaign. Dubya needs to ride in and remind them who is still president.

Strategically, I think the error is in not "keeping their powder dry"---this was a fight that needed to be about the Supreme Court seat(s), and fighting it out like this over appelate court seats is a squandering of political capital.

The last problem in terms of timing is that right now candidate recruitment is going on for the 06 House and Senate races. My gut sense is that the Republicans have made themselves look weak, and therefore vulnerable, and potentially bringing in better candidates to run for the Democrats than had this fight been delayed to the summer. I could be very wrong, but I don't think so.

Lastly, I think it's foolish for the long-term as well: one can well imagine how the Democrats will use this debate when they eventually do win back the Senate (and I'm not being defeatist, but merely noting this as a political scientist who studies American political development). Yes, 51 votes rules, but the filibuster is there for a reason: if the Democrats want to filibuster, make them filibuster. CNN will run split screen tapes of Jimmy Stewart, sure, but FOX can run split screen along with artist's renditions of Senator Byrd in a Klansman's hood or something appropriate like that. The problem is that no one knows what exactly a real, bona-fide filibuster would look like today, how it would play out, or what the political fallout would be. Both sides are too chicken to find out.

The nuclear option is this: if they want to filibuster, make them filibuster for real. Bring in the cots and the Thermoses.

But make it be over the big prize: the chief justiceship.

YIPS FROM LMC: agree with Steve-O that if one is going to have a fillibuster, it ought to be the real kind--complete with long-winded speeches on recipes for chicken gumbo and recitations from the D.C. area phonebook. What we have now are fictional fillibusters where simply uttering the word makes it so and then everyone departs for the cocktail parties on Embassy Row.

I do not think there will be a political price to be paid by the Republicans if the vote is held and they lose. If nothing else, it will demonstrate the Republicans are willing to fight for their nominees, something which Bush 41 demonstrated early in his willingness to fight for John Tower as Secretary of Defense. He lost, but made it clear he was not going to be rolled. Bush 43 needs to demonstrate that he is willing to go to bat for his nominess and that a price will be paid by those who oppose him--using the veto might help as well on pet projects of Kennedy, Reid, Clinton, et al., not to mention the RINOs Chaffee the Lesser, Snowe, and Collins.

YIPS from Steve: The problem with the whole labelling folks "RINO" is that if you do that to the Senate---Chaffee, Snowe, Collins, Hagel, throw in Specter for giggles---is that before you know it, poofff, there goes your majority.

The whole "-INO" phenomena was played to perfection by the Democrats: let's purge all the DINOs who don't meet the criteria of our most rabid and fervent core supporters! Away with you, Zell Miller! Breaux be gone! etc. etc.

Now they can't figure out where their majority went.

Purity is for minority parties.

And if you demand it, you'll be "MINO" (majority in name only) and PINO (powerful in name only) and then you'll be the real RINO: Relevant in Name Only.

EVEN MORE YIPS FROM LMC: political capital has a shelf-life--if you do not use it boldly, it disappears. Bush racked up capital in the last election and it is time to use it. If he succeeds, he will have even more. If he fails, he will have shown the Dems he is willing to fight for nominees whose names were put forward a long time ago (fourteen in the case of U.S. District Judge Terrance Boyle, first nominated by Bush 41).