September 09, 2004
LLAMABUTCHER EXCLUSIVE!!! MUST CREDIT LLAMABUTCHERS!!!
Utt-oh, just as things were starting to look good for the Bush campaign, CBS News got its hands on a NEW document underscoring the problems of George Bush's military service, from one of America's most respected political and miltary leaders.
Our mole at Black Rock sent this over:
I don't know how they're going to finesse this one.
Day 40 since Francois met with the press
Hugh Hewitt is keeping tabs on the time since John "F means Feckless Frenchman" Kerry met with a member of the old media, to answer questions about Christmas in Cambodia, magic hats, gun-running exploits, and whatever else is seared--SEARED--into his memory.
According to Hugh, we're at 40 days on Saturday.
As a public service, we here at Llamabutchers will sneak these into the cafeteria at the National Press Club to help things along:
BOO-YEAH! Welcome back Instapundit readers---the Llamabutchers cover the waterfront so you don't have to, coming back with all the rats grilled on a stick with a nice pesto sauce. Pshop wackiness, Wonkette worship, Gratuitous Domestic Blogging, Sauron's wraith rabbit, the latest from the British bookies on the election, righteous fiskings of the Boston Globe---a little bit of everything.
And while you're here, visit some other blogs that we think are peachy keen up-and-comers, like Gordon the Cranky Neo Con, The Hatemongers Quarterly, and Kathleen the Cake Eater.
Welcome Back, Bill!
As our long time reader (i.e. Robbo's Mom) knows, we like to rag on INDC Bill regularly---we do this because Bill can take it and dish it back with extra relish on the side. Nothing we Llamas like more than that.
So.....Bill takes a sudden sabbatical, and we send him nothing but the hopes everything is A-O'TAY, as Buckwheet was wont to say. And sure enough, he comes back with the posts that blow Dan Rather and CBS News and the Washington Post right out of the water: slam-dunk proof that CBS's "Bush AWOL" documents are forgeries.
Because, like, he called up the expert in the field and asked him.
Too bad blogs don't have the investigative resources of the old media, eh?
If this pans out---and I've got a hunch that it will---this is going to be BIG.
Congrats, Bill!
UPDATE: What the.....? INDC Bill has been emailing Rusty saucy videos? And here I thought we were friends.....thanks guys!
The Blogger with the heart of gold II
For the doubters out there (I'm talking to YOU Gordon!)
I've got some further thougths on blogging entitled "what we can all learn from Wonkette" coming soon....
And below the fold? The real picture sans pshopping.
What can I say, I'm a stud, even though my blogging is even worse than my acting....
Holy Old Media Meltdown, Batman!
I don't really know what to make of the contention sweeping the blogsphere today that the documents the Boston Globe, CBS and 60 Minutes are trumpeting as smoking-gun evidence that Bush was AWOL from National Guard duty are, in fact, forgeries.
Charles at Little Green Footballs seems convinced of it. The Big Trunk at Power Line is all over it, as is National Review's Kerry Spot. Now Drudge is running a top o' the page banner on it.
Whether they're right or not will soon be seen. But this story perfectly illustrates what I was saying this morning - anybody who thinks the Internet - and especially the conservative section of it - isn't shaping the course of the political debate is a blind fool. If these docs do turn out to be forged, it will be a disaster for both Old Media and the Kerry campaign, as well as a huge scalp for the belt of the blogsphere.
UPDATE: INDCent Bill is back and he's not taking any prisoners. Go read his independent research right now.
Steve Is The Seventh Wave
I would just like to point out that thanks to Steve-O's Wonkette blogging, we are now getting links from both Instapundit and this porn industry blog.
I think a passage from this classic is in order:
At the still point of destruction
At the centre of the fury
All the angels, all the devils
All around us can't you see
There is a deeper wave than this
Rising in the land
There is a deeper wave than this
Nothing will withstand
Yup, that's our Steve-O.
Your Tax Money At Work
Well StephenEsque ought to be pleased. I just picked up my U.S. Gov'mint Transportation Subsidy for the next quarter - basically $300 worth of Metro cards. Yup, I'm back to Metro after having spent the last year driving in and out.
Alas, while this gift from Uncle ought to cover my trips on the Metro itself, I still get whanged for parking out at my local Metro station. Currently, it's cheaper to go for the metered parking ($3.00 for 12 hours and hope you don't run overtime) than it is to pay the flat lot rate for all day parking ($3.75 for my station).
Speaking of Jeeps, I left the back off mine all day yesterday as the remnants of Frances dumped on us. When I got out from work, I discovered two inches of water sloshing around on the floorboards. But you know the nice thing about a jeep? All I had to do was reach under and pull the drainage plugs.
Stephen is obviously a confirmed urbanite. I, in turn, am a stalwart suburbanite. The idea of being completely dependent on public transportation to get into and out of the city gives me the willies.
New Llama Yips! And A Confession
Phoenix at Villains Vanquished, a site new to me, has some very flattering things to say about us. Thanks muchly! He also fleshes out one of Steve-O's recent allusions that went rocketing right over my head.
I have to confess that I'm one of those six people who have never read a Harry Potter book nor seen a Harry Potter movie. Really just not interested. Hey Lynn! What's the response to the "Alien Look" for this one? The Cellist Comeback? "You mean you've never heard of Lynn Harrell? Whaaat? What about Yo-Yo Ma? You're freakin' kidding me! Well surely you've heard of Leonard Rose? No? Oh. My. Gawd!"
Your Coffee-Snarfing Political Post for the Day
Mickey Kaus on J. Francois Kerry's proposed Federal "Department of Wellness".
You've been warned.
Oh, Where Have You Been Billy Boy, Billy Boy?
Our pal Gordon, the Cranky Neocon is pining, pining I tell ya, for the return of our other pal INDCent Bill.
We miss Bill, too. On the other hand, we've never been quite so expressive about our feelings for other bloggers as is Gordon. (Insert sound of malicious cackle.)
Slimy Sid Is Huffing Paint Fumes Again
Here is Blumenthal's take on the present state of the campaigns. Read it if you like. Personally, I feel as if I should go take a shower now.
Say It With Me, Friends, "Change Is Bad!"
London is scrapping its double-decker buses. It does not appear that the alternatives being developed do much to improve things. It seems to me that in cases where either choice presents problematic issues of utility, style and tradition ought to count for something.
What Academic Bias?
Oh, Boy! Yesterday I received the latest copy of the alumni magazine from the People's Soviet of Middletown, CT. Usually I just look at the class notes and toss the thing, but there was an article this time entitled Politics at Grassroots that purported to be about politics and the Internet, so of course your humble Llama had to read it.
First I had to find it, though. The cover said the article was on page 24. It was actually on page 20. It would be useless to complain about so glaring an error, because I already know what response I would get: "Hey, man, don't be so anal. Anyway, page numbering is just an artificial construct that enables the continued hegemony of phallo-centric Western Civilization over oppressed indigenous cultures that approach life, wisdom and knowledge in a more holistic, nurturing and non-hierarchical manner. By the way - got any pot?"
Aaaaanyway, most of the article is pretty harmless yadda yadda about online political ads and fundraising, although it is (as you would expect) heavily tilted towards the Donks. But get a load of this:
Will the Internet prove to be truly effective in politics? Assistant Professor of Government Melanye Price says the Dean campaign shows that the jury is still out on that question. “People saw Howard Dean’s campaign as a watershed, because he had so many people involved and he raised a lot of money, but it didn’t translate to votes.
No, Dear. All the Dean experiment proved is that for all a campaign's whistles and bells, if the guy at the center is a total loon, it's not going anywhere. And in fact, I'd argue that the true power of the Internet in Dean's case was in the way it aided and abetted his flame-out. YEEEEEAAAAGGGH!!!!!
But here is the real money quote of the piece:
Also unclear is the extent to which the Internet will influence the political process and outcomes. Both parties have raised funds on the Internet, but the Republican Party, particularly its religiously oriented conservative wing, has not used it to mobilize in the way the Democrats have. “The Christian Right’s way of mobilizing is fundamentally through churches and face-to-face meetings and through the commitment of people to the beliefs of the Religious Right,” says Boyd. “The religious divide is currently the most important political divide in this country—and that’s a social movement that does not depend on technology for its effectiveness.”
I'll even set aside the gratuitous swipe at those silly Bible-Thumping Jeebus Freaks, who apparently rely on speaking in tongues to communicate their eviiiil plans for nationwide cultural domination. Instead, I'd note that this paragraph illustrates the political version of what Douglas Adams called the Somebody Else's Problem effect- the predisposition of the human eye not to see what it doesn't expect or can't explain. Has the author of this piece never even heard of Blogs for Bush? Has she not bothered to check out a sampling of other conservative grassroots blog confederations like the Victory Coalition or Katie's Eowyn Bloggers? Granted, I never went to J-school. But this shore looks like mobilization to me.
Also, I think the article doesn't really comprehend the way in which blogging current affects politics most directly - through its increasing power to shape and present arguments, ideas and images. Trent Lott, anybody? Howell Raines and Jayson Blair? The Plaime Game? "Sticky Fingers" Sandy Berger and the 9/11 Commission?
The Swiftboat Vets story is a perfect example. Without the conservative side of the 'Sphere, this movement would have been strangled in its crib. The mainstream press would simply have buried it. Only after the story had spread across the Web and allowed the Vets to generate some notoriety and money did the NYTimes and its ilk deign to take notice. Once the SBV's story could no longer be ignored, it seriously altered the public image of J. Francois Kerry's carefully crafted image of Vietnam hero. And as the polls demonstrate, this is having a profound impact on his chances of getting elected.
That is where the political power of the Internet primarily lies these days, I think. And there is a great deal of conservative firepower here. If my only on-line political effort was simply to email all my friends and tell them to go vote for Dubya, I wouldn't have much of an impact on the vote. But by engaging in the debate of facts and ideas on-line and in front of a largely anonymous audience, I am (hopefully) influencing the way people think about the issues and the candidates. And that is going to translate into numbers come November.
Meaty Bleating
Lileks is architecture-blogging today and kinda, sorta defending McMansions. As is almost inevitably the case, James takes some very sensible views - his position is more an attack against snotty liberal elitism than a defense of the excesses of the Starter-Castle Culture.
Speaking of which, check out these monstrosities. I point them out because "La Panorama" and "La Chateau" are literally just down the street from my house. They are among a half-dozen such places jammed together cheek-by-jowl and known locally as "Chevron Estates" because they are built right on top of a corner gas station. I have no idea how this builder makes any money. All of these houses were built on spec and most have remained unsold for years.
I frequently see cars in front of one of them in the evening, but seemingly never the same cars. My theory is that the builder lends the place out to people to make porn films. It would be the perfect set for that sort of thing (I mean, I guess).
Gratuitous Aussie War Movie Review
I finally watched Gallipoli for the first time last evening (after finally getting the girls to go to sleep). Yawn.
If you want a really first class Aussies-getting-kicked-around-by-bloody-minded-Brits-in-the-hell-of-war film, watch Breaker Morant instead. Different war, of course, but same principle and much better done.
Here's a bit more about Morant himself. A tremendous amount of controversy swirls around whether he and other Bushvelt Carbineers - a kind of horse-back Delta Force - went over the line in their guerrilla fight against the Boers, or whether they were railroaded by Kitchener to protect his own image. I don't know the answer. Certainly the perception that Moran and Handcock were judicially murdered to cover Kitchener's backside had a tremendous impact on relations between Australia and Great Britain. Of course, the film takes the pro-Morant view to the hilt. I'd be interested to see a more judicious treatment of the business. The only history of the war I've read, Boer War by Thomas Packenham, skips over the incident in just a few sentences. (If memory serves, Packenham suggests the Australian martyrdom of Morant was not completely justified.)
More Llama-ette Blogging
Back to school means a change in the daily cycle which means everything is off which means extremely wired girls last evening. Grrrrrr.
We've always been Bedtime Nazis at our house. Eight o'clock. In bed. No excuses. Period. And aside from these occassional bumps, it works out very well. Which makes it all the more frustrating the times when they do start giving us trouble because we so depend on those few hours of peace and quiet in the evening.
Still, I need to make a better effort to control my temper. I'd hate to think that if I were squashed by a malfunctioning space probe or hurled in front of a speeding bus by one of John Kerry's flipflops some fine morning, the last words I'd have left with my girls were, "Go to bed, dammit!"
7 AM News Roundup
Decribing "swing" voters in Pennsylvania:
The postconvention bump for Bush has been substantial here, and it appears to be at two levels. Some got a good long look at George Bush and liked what they saw. Others, not necessarily wild for Bush, accept the notion that Kerry is already toast. (When a 90-something resident of the assisted living facility my mom resides at says, ``What's that expression? `Put a fork in him?' '' you know Kerry's in trouble.)
The ``he's toast'' phenomenon can truly become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Bush did what he needed to do in New York. The constant reminders that this was the president who helped see a nation through the worst trauma it has ever experienced were everywhere. This weekend there will be more - more memorials, more remembrances, more harkening back to that day.
The Democrats don't understand the need to move to the center. Bob Shrum, Kerry's — and Ted Kennedy's — key strategist, makes his living by appealing to the party's base. The addition of James Carville and Paul Begala to the team just reinforces the tendency to tack to the left, embracing an economic populism that resonates with 40 percent of the voters but leaves the rest cold.After all, when Clinton needed to win 43 percent of the vote to get elected in 1992 against Bush, as Ross Perot split the Republican vote, he relied on Carville and Begala. But when he needed to win half the voters in the 1996 campaign, as Perot's appeal diminished, they were nowhere to be seen.
Carville and Begala will likely focus on "the economy, stupid," which is a needed correction for Kerry — whose current strategy of trying to beat Bush on terrorism brings to mind Winston Churchill's characterization of fighting a land war in Asia against Japan in World War II: "Going into the water to fight the shark."
But in its focus on the economy, the Kerry team is likely to lose sight of one basic problem: In running against a bad economy, it is helpful if the economy is bad. With an unemployment rate approaching 5 percent, they'll have a hard time making the case.
The decision to bring in Carville and Begala also begs a more fundamental question: Do they want Kerry to win?
Both men are primarily loyal to the Clintons — Bill and Hillary. Clearly, the former president would like the former first lady to be president in 2008. And a Kerry victory would stand in the way.
An axiom of politics is that generally you want your campaign advisers to hope that you win — and Carville and Begala may not pass that standard.
New Jersey: Toss-up state
Consultants can persuade Kerry to recycle Howard Dean's effective critique of the conflict in Iraq as "the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time." But they can't erase Kerry's recent statement that he would vote for the war knowing what he knows today, nor can he eliminate his litany of back-and-forth statements regarding Iraq and Saddam Hussein. (See the link to kerryoniraq.com on the Republican National Committee website.)
Democrats continue to believe that if only they put the right people in the back room or on the candidate's airplane, they will defeat George W. Bush. Strategy counts, but the candidate counts more. Bill Clinton, not James Carville or Paul Begala, won election and reelection.
No one is yet writing off Kerry's presidential aspirations, given his history of strong finishes. However, no one should overstate those finishes, either. Kerry's Massachusetts victories came in a state dominated by liberal voters who valued liberal ideology over personality. His presidential primary season victories began with Dean's momentous collapse in Iowa.
And the dynamics of Kerry's national campaign differ from any political race he waged in the past. This time around, Kerry is wary of embracing his natural liberal constituency. So liberals must trust that the gun-waving candidate who says he would vote all over again to authorize war will turn into a president who will put down the hunting rifle and bring home the troops as soon as possible.
This obvious political charade does not engender strong passion. The left is resigned to Kerry, the right to Bush. Everyone else looks at the two candidates and tries to decide whether they want the incumbent -- a candidate committed to one mistaken policy -- or the challenger -- a candidate committed to shifting policies -- running the country.
That makes personality -- or likability -- the driving force in the campaign for the undecided voter.
To that end, political advisers should keep Kerry away from large pools of water that tempt him to wind-surf. Advisers can toughen up his rhetoric and sharpen his political advertising. But they can't change his longwinded speaking style, his long history of political calculation, or his Senate-bred instinct to equivocate. Anyone-but-Bush advocates should weigh in now with angry e-mails deriding the president as a smirking, draft-dodging dummy who is being marketed to gullible Americans by a passel of evil political strategists. Enough average Americans agree or the incumbent wouldn't be in such political trouble. Even so, Bush the candidate is so far more successful than Kerry the candidate.
Part of his success is due to issue framing. "Am I safe or not?" is a more compelling question, than "Will I have a job or not?" That is especially true as Americans approach the third anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and view horrifying pictures out of Russia, where hundreds of school children, parents, and teachers were killed after terrorists took them hostage.
But like it or not, part of it is also due to Bush's ease with voters, as viewed in snippets on the evening news. There's one guy in a blue oxford shirt, with his sleeves rolled up, as he presses the flesh and tells voters over and over that Iraq is a critical piece of the war on terror. The way to honor fallen troops, he says, is to complete the mission.
Then, there's the other guy. Yesterday Kerry gave a speech on Iraq, accusing Bush of misleading the United States into war on the basis of "false evidence." But this other guy also says he would vote to authorize Bush to wage war knowing everything he now knows. And this is the same guy who, when arriving in Cincinnati on Tuesday night, said, "More than 1,000 of America's sons and daughters have now given their lives on behalf of their country, on behalf of freedom, on behalf of terror."
Remember the sound in Tommy Boy when David Spade hit Chris Farley square in the forehead with a 2 by 4? That one's gonna leave a mark....
WAIT! DON'T ORDER NOW! EXTRA BONUS LINK! Can you imagine the US Senate without Tom Daschele? Apparently, South Dakota voters can. The latest from from the Thune v. Daschele blog....